USD

11:29, 31 December

US Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Temporary surge without affecting unemployment trends

Initial Jobless Claims are expected to continue their recent cycling between surprise gains and losses. First-time filings are expected to increase to 833,000 after 803,000 while continuing claims are predicted to rise to 5.433 million from 5.337 million. Currency markets can be volatile in the final weeks of the year.


On the last day of the year, commodity-linked currencies are the best performers against the greenback, followed by EUR and GBP.


Key quotes
“Requests for unemployment benefits are forecast to rise to 833,000 in the December 25 tracking period, two weeks after the highest total since early September and one week after the lowest filings this month.”


“Continuing claims are projected to reach 5.433 million in the December 18 week, after falling to 5.337 million, the lowest of the pandemic era, the previous week.”


“Initial Jobless Claims in the US have been the pandemic's telltale. They signaled the abrupt shift to catastrophe in March and have been monitored ever since for the recovery. The recent volatility in filing is directly tied to the newly imposed restrictions in a few states. It does not represent a national trend. As such the potential variation in the weekly numbers, will, barring a huge disparity, have little impact on the currency markets, even in their end of year liquidity desert.”