13:39, 09 April

Daily Market Update

While the US Majors are sending us mixed signals in terms of the strength of the Greenback, we have seen a clear upward trend since 20 March on USDCHF.  With lows that day of 0.989 we have witnessed a ragged move to the upside since then within a well defined bullish channel.

Currently we are at 0.9985, which was a key level of support several times in February and early March, and a key level of resistance throughout January, with price finally breaking through during the first week in February.

Early in March, price achieved highs of 1.0125 and finally slid into a bear run with the break of a classic double top just before mid-March.  From a technical point of view, USDCHF has just intersected a lower trend line and, if the trend is our friend, a long position may get us back to par (1.00) and higher.  For Fibonacci fans, considering a high of 1.0125 from 7 March and a low of 0.989 from 20 March, we are sitting at support on the 38.2% level and, should a bounce occur, the 50% level of resistance is just slightly above par.

Price action for the last week or so has been above both the 100 and 200 day moving averages.

Of course, USD strength may be contingent upon the ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing.  The US Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates until next year, if at all, and the Swiss National Bank will not be announcing an interest rate decision for more than two months from now so major planned news events may not dramatically affect the pair.  Even so, analysts do not see any change in the Swiss interest rate this year which is currently -0.75%