AUD/USD

10:12, 18 September

AUD/USD Daily Analysis

After some sporadic movement, the AUDUSD has settled a little in the last week resting on support at the current key level of 0.7150. In the last few days it has attempted to rally higher above 0.72 but has been sold off strongly every time returning it to 0.7150. It only recently fell through this level reaching its lowest level in 2018 around 0.7085 but was well supported with buyers jumping in at these low levels. The last time the AUDUSD was this low, it bounced off the 0.7150 level very strongly and moved over 500 pips in a couple of weeks. Up until this recent drop the AUDUSD had been quite content to trade around 0.74 and it previously made a few attempts to break through the resistance at 0.75 however all of these were thwarted.

During this period, the significant level at 0.75 loomed like a dark cloud. This same level has previously propped up the currency pair before being broken strongly mid June. Throughout June the AUDUSD has dropped very sharply from a one month high above the key 0.7650 level down to a new 12 month low around 0.7310. In the couple of weeks prior to this sharp drop, the AUDUSD has enjoyed some much-needed support from the key 0.75 level. It was only in early May that the AUDUSD was trading below this level and looking poised to continue much lower, so it did well to rally higher and get back above the 0.75 level.

Throughout the last couple of years the AUDUSD has traded within reasonably tight ranges of up to six cents, and in the last nine months or so we have seen it push higher to its highest levels in more than two years above 80 US cents. The 80 cents level however has provided a significant obstacle to the AUDUSD as it has met resistance there since the middle of 2017. Repeated attempts to push through the key 80 cents level were short lived and the AUDUSD quickly sold off moving it lower down to its current levels.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will today release the minutes from its 4th September monetary policy meeting, in which it left the nation's official cash rate at the record-low level of 1.5% for an incredible 25th straight meeting.The interest rate has been at the current level since August 2016.On a related note, Australia's impressive run of jobs growth has continued into August.Employment increased by 44,000 over the month, well ahead of market expectations, with most of the growth in full-time positions with 33,700 jobs created, while part-time work increased by 10,200.The unemployment rate remained at 5.3% as the number of people looking for work edged up.Unemployment rates in New South Wales and Victoria are now below 5% but much higher elsewhere, particularly Western Australia and Queensland, which are sitting on 6.4%.There was another impressive fall in unemployment for younger Australians, with the unemployment rate for 15 to 24-year-olds falling to 11.2% from above 12% earlier in the year.